#1 23/09/2011 22h59 → Prédire le marché boursier ? Quelques citations sur les marchés actions... (actions, bourse, citation, prédiction)
- Réputation : 12
"The stock market will fluctuate, but you can’t pinpoint when it will tumble or shoot up. If you have allocated your assets properly and have sufficient emergency money, you shouldn’t need to worry." (AAII Guide to Mutual Funds)
"Endless tinkering is unlikely to improve performance, and chasing last period’s stellar achiever is a losing strategy." (Frank Armstrong, author and adviser)
"It must be apparent to intelligent investors--if anyone possessed the ability to do so (market time) he would become a billionaire quickly." (David Babson, author, adviser)
"What it really takes to improve your returns and diminish your risks is a willingness to stop focusing exclusively on the movement of the markets." (Baer & Ginsler, The Great Mutual Fund Trap)
"If we haven’t said it enough, we’ll say it again: Market timing is dangerous." (Barron’s Guide to Making Investment Decisions.)
"Only liars manage to always be "out" during bad times and "in’ during good times. (Bernard Baruch, famed investor)
"Market timing recommendations have an impressive track record of being harmful to an investor’s financial health." (Peter Bernstein, author, researcher)
"There are two kinds of investors, be thay large or small: those who don’t know where the market is headed, and those who don’t know that they don’t know." (Wm Bernstein, author and adviser)
In January 2008, only 2 out of 248 Bogleheads, forecast how low the S&P 500 Index would fall that year. ( Boglehead Contest)
"If you’re determined to succeed at investing, make it your first priority to become a buy-and-hold investor." (Jack Brennan in Straight Talk on Investing)
"When you give up the hope that some advisor, some system, some source of inside tips is going to give you a shortcut to wealth, you’ll finally begin to gain control over your financial future." (Harry Browne, author)
"For the 12 years ending 1997, while the S&P rose 734% on a total return basis, the average return for 186 tactical asset-allocation mutual funds was a mere 384%." (Buckingham Financial Services)
"We have long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good." (Warren Buffet)
"Market timing is an ineffective strategy for mutual fund investors." (CDA/Wiesenberger)
"Any investment method that relies on predicting the future is doomed to fail." (Chandan & Sengupta, financial authors)
"A successful investor has a good knowledge base, a well-defined investment plan, and nerves of steel to stick with it." (Andrew Clarke, financial author)
"Most investors are unable to profitably time the market and are left with equity fund returns lower than inflation." (2003 Dalber Study)
"Take my word on it. Buy-and-hold is still your best long-run strategy." (Jonathan Clements, author & journalist)
"The buy and hold equity investor (S&P 500) would have earned a return of 8.35% for the 20 years ending 12/08, while the market-timer would have earned just 1.87%." (Dalbar research)
"Market-timing is bunk." (Pat Dorsey, M* Director of Fund Analysis."
"The performance of 185 tactical asset allocation mutual funds was compared with buy-and-hold strategies and equity mutual funds over the years 1985-97. Over this period the S&P 500 Index increased 734%, average equity funds increased 598%, and tactical asset allocation funds increased 384%." (David Dreman, author)
"Market timing is a wicked idea. Don’t try it-ever." (Charles Ellis, author of The Loser’s Game)
"Do nothing. I think all of this market timing is statistically unfounded. I don’t trust it. You may avoid a downturn, but you may also miss the rise. Choose the risk tolerance you’re OK with and hold tight." (Professor Eugene Fama)
"Forget market timing in any form." (Paul Farrell, (CBS Marketwatch.com)
"The best practice for investors is to design a long-term globally diversified asset allocation based on present and future financial needs. Then follow that plan religiously, through all markets good and bad." (Rick Ferri, author and adviser)
"Benjamin Graham spent much of his career trying to devise a good formula for when to get into--and out of--the stock market. All formulas, he concluded, failed." (Forbes, 12-27-99)
"Buy and hold. Diversify. Put your money in index funds. Pay attention to to the one thing you can control--costs." (Fortune Investor’s Guide 2003)
"Dont’ sell out of fear or buy out of greed. Just keep making investments, and let the market take its course over the long-term." (Norman Fosback, author, researcher)
"We have two classes of forecasters: those who don’t know-and those who don’t know they don’t know." (John Kenneth Galbraith, Economist)
"I’ve learned that market timing can ruin you." (Elaine Garzarelli, a once famed market-timer)
"Staying on course may be just as difficult in bull markets as in bear markets." (Good & Hermansen, Index Your Way to Investment Success)
"For most investors the odds favor a buy-and-hold strategy." (Carol Gould, author & financial columnist)
"If I have noticed anything over these 60 years on Wall Street, it is that people do not succeed in forecasting that’s going to happen to the stock market." (Benjamin Graham)
"From June 1980 through December 1992, 94.5% of 237 market timing investment newsletters had gone out of business." (Graham/Campbell Study)
"Your very refusal to be active, and your renunciation of any pretended ability to predict the future, can become your most powerful weapon." (Graham & Zweig, The Intelligent Investor)
"The best advice: buy and hold." (John Haslem, author and researcher)
"Even in a bear market, market-timing and actively managed mutual funds generally hurt investment performance more than they help it." (Mark Hulbert, N.Y.Times columnist)
"After receiving the Nobel Prize, Daniel Kahneman, was asked by a CNBC anchorman what investment tips he had for viewers. His answer: "Buy and hold."
"I am not a trader, and don’t believe in trying to time the market or outguess the short-term fluctuations." (Lawrence Kudlow, CNBC)
"Timing the market is for losers. Time IN the market will get you to the winner’s circle, and you’ll sleep better at night." (Michael Leboeuf, author of The Millionaire in You)
"No one is smart enough to time the market’s ups and downs." (Arthur Levitt, former SEC chairman)
"Markets will go up and they’ll go down over your investing lifetime, but it’s time in the market that counts, not market timing." (Mel Lindauer, author and Forbes columnist)
"It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting." (Jesse Livermore, author & famed investor)
"Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy or the stock market." (Peter Lynch)
"Buying-and-holding a broad-based market index fund is still the only game in town." (Burton Malkiel, author of the classic Random Walk Down Wall Street)
"At the peak of the bull market in March of 2000 only 0.7% of all recommendations on stocks issued by Wall Street brokerages and investment banks were to "Sell." (Miami Herald, 1-26-03)
"If you can’t handle the short term, if the uncertainty is stressful and the headlines are unbearable, then the markets are too hot for you: get out of the kitchen." (Moshe Milevsky, author & researcher)
"Timing is public enemy number one in investing." (John Montgomery, Bridgeway Capital Management)
"We’re not keen on market-timing. It just doesn’t work." (Morningstar Course 106)
"We’ve yet to find anyone who can accurately and consistently predict the market’s short-term moves." (Motley Fools)
"In 1999, 70% of day traders sustained losses that wiped out their accounts." (North American Securities Administrators Association)
"The most active traders earned 7% less annually than buy-and-hold investors." (Odean & Barber study of 66,400 investors)
"Forget trying to time the market and do something productive instead." (Gerald Perritt, financial author)
"The market timer’s Hall of Fame is an empty room." (Jane Bryant Quinn)
"Countless studies have proved that no one is able to time the market effectively." (Mary Roland, author & journalist)
"Trading is based on the rather arrogant belief that the trader knows more than the buyers and sellers with whom he is trading." (Ron Ross, The Unbeatable Market)
"In the long run it doesn’t matter much whether your timing is great or lousy. What matters is that you stay invested." (Louis Rukeyser, TV host)
"For the 10 years that ended 12-31-2000, only one newsletter out of the 112 that Timers Digest follows managed to beat the S&P 500 Benchmark." (Jim Schmidt, editor)
"What do I really think is going to happen? -- I have absolutely no idea. (John Schoen, senior producer for msnbc.com)
"I have learned the hard way that market timing and trying to pick a fund that will out-perform the market are both losing strategies." (Bill Schultheis, author and advisor)
"I’m a strong advocate of buying and holding." (Charles Schwab)
"It turns out that I should have just bought them (securities), and thereafter I should have just sat on them like a fat, stupid peasant." (Fred Schwed Jr., Where are the Customers’ Yachts?)
"If you are not going to stick to your chosen investment method through thick and thin, there is almost no chance of your succeeding as an investor. (Chandan Sengupta, financial author)
"Investors should look with a jaundiced eye at any market timing system being peddled by its guru-creator." (W. Scott Simon, financial author)
"Investors desperately want to believe they can time the markets, but the statistics tell an entirely different story." (Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab Chief Investment Strategist)
"Buying and holding a few broad market index funds is perhaps the most important move ordinary investors can make to supercharge their portfolios." (Stein & DeMuth, (authors & advisor)
"It’s my belief that it’s a waste of time to try to time any market decline, or try to pinpoint a market bottom." (James Stewart, Smart Money columnist)
"It’s a staple of personal finance advice: Buy-and-hold, because trading the stock market is a sucker’s bet." Larry Swedroe, author and adviser.
"People should stop chasing performance and just put together a sensible portfolio regardless of the ups and downs of the market." (David Swensen, Yale Investments)
"Trust in time and forget market-timing. Allow time to work its compounding magic for you. Let market-timing inflict its miseries on someone else." (Tweddell & Pierce, financial authors)
"Stay invested. Not only does buy-and-hold investing offer better returns, but it’s also less work." (Eric Tyson, author of Mutual Funds for Dummies)"
"Market timing and performance-chasing are losing strategies." (Vanguard Investment Philosophy #8)
"Few if any investors manage to be consistently successful in timing markets." (Wall Street Journal Lifetime Guide to Money)
"If you’re considering doing your own market timing, the best advice is this: Don’t." (John Waggoner, USA Today financial columnist)
"From 1963-1993 stocks returned an annual average of 11.83% for time in the market. Conversely timing the market or trading returned an average of 3.28%." (University of Michigan survey)
"If you buy, and then hold a total-stock-market index fund, it is mathematically certain that you will outperform the vast majority of all other investors in the long run." (Jason Zweig, author and Wall Street Journal columnist)
"I do not know of anybody who has done it (market timing) successfully and consistently. I don’t even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently." (Jack Bogle in Common Sense on Mutual Funds)
#2 24/09/2011 10h32 → Prédire le marché boursier ? Quelques citations sur les marchés actions... (actions, bourse, citation, prédiction)
- Réputation : 68
Il faut évidemment confronter cela à l’avis inverse alors "je m’y colle" :
Source : http://www.daily-bourse.fr/analyse-La-c … -13464.php
Cet exemple me paraît plus récent que les vôtres qui "datent" un peu. Alors, "has been" le "buy and hold" ?
#3 27/09/2011 08h31 → Prédire le marché boursier ? Quelques citations sur les marchés actions... (actions, bourse, citation, prédiction)
- Réputation : 68
autre citation boursière pour les candidats acheteurs en ce moment : "never catch a falling knife" !
çà peut faire mal
Ericsson…! Qu'il entre !
#4 17/10/2011 18h56 → Prédire le marché boursier ? Quelques citations sur les marchés actions... (actions, bourse, citation, prédiction)
- Réputation : 512
On dit d’une intelligence supérieure qu’elle est capable de faire cohabiter en son sein deux idées radicalement opposées sans pour autant altérer son bon fonctionnement.
Je trouve que cela résume bien le sempiternel antagonisme buy & hold / vente opportuniste qui torture traditionnellement les investisseurs.
Dernière modification par thomz (31/03/2014 06h39)
#5 18/10/2011 17h35 → Prédire le marché boursier ? Quelques citations sur les marchés actions... (actions, bourse, citation, prédiction)
- Réputation : 12
Une étude de Vanguard qui permet de comparer le scénario Buy&Hold vs le "market timing"
Bien évidemment ils sont partis pris mais c’est assez intéressant
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insigh … ut-emotion
#6 31/03/2014 04h51 → Prédire le marché boursier ? Quelques citations sur les marchés actions... (actions, bourse, citation, prédiction)
- Réputation : 145
Quelques bons rappels dans cet article :
One-sentence financial rules
Mes préférés :
Morgan Housel - Motley Fool a écrit :
There are 56,956 personal finance books on Amazon.com. In aggregate, they contain more than 3 billion words. This seems absurd, because 99% of personal finance can be summarized in nine words: Work a lot, spend a little, invest the difference. Master that, and the other 2.999 billion words are filler.
The most important finance topics don’t require details. Most can be, and should be, summarized in a sentence or two.
Here are some I’ve learned.
1. Dollar-cost average for your entire life and you’ll beat almost everyone who doesn’t.
2. Only invest in products and companies you can explain to a six-year old.
3. Every five to seven years, people forget that recessions occur every five to seven years.
4. You’re twice as biased as you think you are (four times if you disagree with that statement).
5. Read more books and fewer articles.
6. Read more history and fewer forecasts.
7. It’s strange that you go to the doctor once a year, but check your investments once a day.
8. Be careful when reading about how stupid investors can be and not realize you’re reading about yourself.
9. Your circle of competence is probably 90% smaller than you think it is.
10. You’re only diversified when some of your investments perform worse than others.
13. When in doubt, choose the investment with the lowest fee.
15. The more you learn about the economy, the more you realize you have no idea what’s going on.
16. Start saving for college before your kid is born, and start saving for your retirement before you graduate college. You’ll feel silly when you start and like a genius when you finish.
17. The most powerful way to grow your money is learning to live with less, since you have complete control over it.
20. You have a strict obligation to not have an opinion about things you don’t understand.
23. Holding 60% of your assets in stocks and 40% in bonds isn’t perfect for everyone; but I can think of a thousand worse strategies.
24. Respect the role luck has played on some of your role models.
28. Read last year’s market predictions and you’ll never again take this year’s predictions seriously.
29. Warren Buffett’s folksy talk misleads people into thinking that what he’s accomplished is easy. It’s not.
31. Two things you can do to make yourself a better investor are increase the amount of time you’re investing for and the humility you put into your ideas.
32. Just as you should dress appropriately for your age, you should spend appropriately for your income, and not a penny more.
33. Warren Buffett has the best explanation of dumb risk-taking: "To make money they didn’t have and didn’t need, they risked what they did have and did need. And that’s foolish. It is just plain foolish."
34. You can probably afford not to be a great investor -- you probably can’t afford to be a bad one.
35. You’re twice as gullible as you think you are.
36. Learn more from your bad investments than your good ones.
37. Judge investors by the quality of their arguments, not the performance of their last trade.
38. You can realistically afford probably half the home the mortgage broker approves you for.
39. Teach your kids about money before they’re old enough to earn their own.
40. Admit when you are wrong.
41. Imagine how much stuff you’d have to make up if you were forced to talk 24/7. Remember this when watching financial news on TV.
42. There is, and always will be, more money to be made providing investment advice than receiving it.
43. Assume the worst, hope for the best, accept reality.
44. Save for your own retirement; assume Social Security and private pensions won’t be around (even though they probably will).
45. Annuities: A product mixing the complexity of high finance with the sales tactics of used-car salesman has an entirely predictable outcome.
46. The correlation between confidence and future regret is incredibly high.
47. During the last 100 years, there have been more 10% market pullbacks than Christmases. Everyone knows Christmas will come; think of volatility the same way.
48. Don’t attempt to keep up with the Joneses without realizing the Joneses aren’t any happier than you are.
52. To quote Larry Summers: "A good rule of thumb for many things in life holds that things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then happen faster than you thought they could."
53. Another Larry Summers gem: "THERE ARE IDIOTS. Look around."
54. "Invest in what you know" is dangerously simplified.
55. Quit day trading, and donate your money to charity instead. Same financial result for you, and a better outcome for society.
56. Most people’s biggest expense is interest, which comes from living beyond your means, and buying things they think will impress others, which comes from insecurity. Avoid these two and you’ll grow richer than most of your peers.
57. Reaching for yield to increase your income is often like sticking your hands in a fire to warm them up -- good in theory, disastrous in practice.
61. Investors were probably better informed 20 years ago when there was 90% less financial news.
investment in knowledge pays the best interest -Parrain sympa pour l'Investisseur Francais
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