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#1 02/12/2010 11h38 → Déflation : 12 actifs à vendre, 10 actifs à acheter, par Gary Shilling

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Pour prendre le contre-pied de cette discussion Comment se prémunir de l’inflation ?.

Gary Shilling, auteur du livre The Age of Deleveraging, donne ses actifs/secteurs préférés et détestés pour les 10 prochaines années, dans une économie américaine à faible croissance et déflationniste.

Évidemment, si l’économie était "finalement" inflationniste (et donc que le pronostic de Gary Shilling était faux), il faut inverser, les actifs à vendre deviennent à acheter et vice-versa.

Source : How To Invest In The Age Of De-Leveraging - Forbes

12 actifs à vendre ou éviter

Achat discrétionnaire couteux
In a slow-growth economy consumers save by postponing the purchase of expensive items like autos, appliances and expensive leisure travel. Airlines, cruise lines and hospitality providers may have a rough go of it over the next few years.

Cartes de crédits et prêteurs
Debit cards are increasingly taking the place of credit cards, as consumers realize they can’t trust themselves to restrain spending. With a growing trend toward long-run saving, the credit card business has moved from a growth industry to a laggard.

Constructeurs de maison conventionnels et fournisseurs en relation
As a result of tighter lending standards, vigilant regulation and consumer awareness, the home building industry is plagued by excess inventories, a lower demand and a switch from McMansions to smaller houses. Conventional home builders are likely to see depressed profits for years.

Antiquités, arts et autres biens tangibles
Increased focus on high incomes has wealthy people--who are more likely to buy rare and pricey goods--curbing their discretionary spending on things like art and antiques. This trend is reflected in the subdued auction sales at Sotheby’s and a highly unusual decline in diamond prices.

Banques et institutions financières similaires
The stringent regulation replacing the laissez faire model will curb the profitability of banks and other similar financial institutions. As a result, banks big and small are likely to be unattractive investments for a number of years.

Actions et obligations de mauvaises qualités
The bailout of the big banks and the easing of the financial crisis allayed investor fears, causing junk spreads to collapse to levels lower than in many pre-financial crisis years. If the spread of junk bonds is a measure of market value, then the dividends don’t seem big enough to offset the risk that they won’t be paid in this climate.

Sociétés en "convalescence"
In an era of slow growth and deflation, the combination of below-average revenue growth, high fixed income, and big debts can be deadly for a company. Avoid investing in flailing companies, since miraculous recovery is a less likely proposition.

Producteurs de biens technologiques anciens ou à faible valeur ajoutée
Industrial capacity is so excessive that a meaningful surge in capital spending in advanced countries is probably years away. Even though many producers have cut costs efficiently in the face of weak demand, cost-cutting will not be able to sustain profits for long without revenue growth.

Immobilier commercial
The real estate business is still feeling the effects of falling of lease rates, low hotel occupancies and a general revenue slump. Warehouses are empty as consumer retrenchment curtails goods imports, and excess capacity in commercial real estate looks likely to persist.

Matières premières
Global excess supply conditions will keep commodity prices under pressure, as will muted demand. Take, for example, American use of crude oil and petroleum products, which keeps falling due to consumer retrenchment, lower commercial demand and a decline in commuter travels due to high unemployment.

Actions et obligations des pays développés
Developing countries depend on exports for growth, and the majority of exports by Asian countries (with the exception of Japan) go directly or indirectly to the United States. As the U.S. economy suffers a setback, developing nations will follow suit, as many of those countries don’t have high enough rates of discretionary spending to support economies domestically.

Japon : un naufrage lent
Japan seems far away from seeing the end of the long slump it entered in the early 1990s. Despite the 20-year deflationary depression, the yen has strengthened on balance; but Japan’s aging and declining population and troubled export outlook may finally be catching up with it. The yen is likely to weaken considerably against the dollar in the next 5 to 10 years.

10 actifs/secteurs à acheter

Bons du trésor et obligations de haute qualité
Treasurys are a safe haven in a troubled world and actually benefit from deflation. While 3% yields don’t sound like much on a 30-year bond, price appreciation and interest can mean returns upwards of 20%.

Actions produisant du revenus et obligations de haute qualité
High-quality corporate and municipal bonds, stocks of utilities, consumer companies and health care firms are likely to rise, as stocks that pay meaningful dividends come back into style.

Alimentations et autres biens de consommation non durable
Items like laundry detergent and bread are essential that are purchased in good times and bad. During times of deflation, raw material costs fall faster than prices, meaning attractive profit growths for these companies.

Consommation discrétionnaire de qualité mais pas trop chère (Small Luxuries)
Consumers--especially when they are hard-pressed--tend to buy the very best of what they can afford, even in low price categories. Manufacturers and retailers that can adapt to the demand for small luxuries will be winners in this economic environment.

Le $ américain
The dollar will strengthen for years, as it is regarded as the global safe haven amid slow economic growth and deflation, which tend to be tougher on foreign economies than on that of the U.S. Despite doubts, it will remain the global reserve currency for the foreseeable future.

Conseils en investissement et financiers
Low investment returns will discourage do-it-yourself investing and encourage the use of professionals. As postwar babies try to build their assets in the remaining years before retirement, they’ll look for all the professional help they can afford.

Maisons sortie d’usine et appartements à louer
With smaller sizes and costs about half of their site-built counterparts, factory-built homes should have an exciting future in this depressed economy. Additionally, renting is coming back into fashion--a boon for apartment companies.

The huge health care sector, which accounts for 16% of GDP, will continue its rapid growth in view of new healthcare legislation and the aging of Baby Boomers.

Améliorateurs de productivité
In times of slow economic growth, increased profits through price and volume increases will be difficult for many firms. As cost-cutting zeal remains in place, companies will also look for ways to promote productivity in increasingly affordable ways.


Je trouve ce type d’article "gentillet". Avoir une stratégie long terme bien arrêtée et diversifiée, évite de faire la girouette en lisant un gourou déflationniste et le lendemain un gourou inflationniste (Sorros, Paulson…).

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#2 02/12/2010 19h07 → Déflation : 12 actifs à vendre, 10 actifs à acheter, par Gary Shilling

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Je viens de tomber là-dessus : Log In - The New York Times

Grosso modo, il suggère une diversification maximale en rebalançant régulièrement pour garder la même allocation.

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#3 02/12/2010 19h28 → Déflation : 12 actifs à vendre, 10 actifs à acheter, par Gary Shilling

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Ils ont du lire mon livre ! :-)   (humour)

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#4 29/03/2011 17h50 → Déflation : 12 actifs à vendre, 10 actifs à acheter, par Gary Shilling

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Pour le moment le camp déflationniste est en train de perdre :
Source : l?inflation s?accélère en février 2011 – Le blog A Lupus un regard hagard sur Lécocomics et ses finances

Au Royaume-Unis, l’inflation sur un an glissant est de 4,4% :

Et encore, ça ne tient pas compte de l’immobilier.

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