kiwijuice, le 04/12/2020 a écrit :

Point rapidos sur les résultats de 4Finance SA.

Soucis:
- faiblesse de la reprise conjuguée aux NPL (dites stables) et baisse de l’interest income > ils sont juste à l’équilibre financier. Il faut espérer que les économies repartent l’an prochain
- dvd de TBI bloqué donc ils ne peuvent faire remonter €20-40m de cash vers la holding

Sourires
- le DVD de TBI remontant l’an prochain, ils pourraient racheter de la dette sur le marché ou faire plus d’origination.
- ils annoncent une continuation de la reprise au T4 (quoique pas très forte)

Je suis circonspect sur ma position.
Je pense qu’ils auront du mal à générer assez de cash pour rembourser les 2 bonds donc ils devront faire rouler la dette. Dans quelle mesure, c’est la grosse question.
Le risque de crédit me semble mesuré car en cas de non reprise, ils ont toujours la possibilité de vendre / IPO TBI banque.
Ils ressortiraient assez de cash pour payer l’EUR bond.

A 95%, je me tâte en fait pour en refaire un peu. Je suis assez surpris que le prix ne se soit pas davantage raffermi.

@Oblible et Cie (M07, REinanto), vous faites quoi?
Le YTM est proche de 14%, spamal quand même.

S&P Rating a écrit :

24/11 - 4 Finance

Luxembourg-based 4finance’s weak financial performance in online business over the first nine months of 2020 has considerably depressed its EBITDA and weakened its leverage ratio.
While reduced new business frees up cash that 4finance will likely continue to use for further bond repurchases, pressure to refinance its 2022 bond maturities will grow.
We are lowering our long-term issuer credit rating on 4finance Holding S.A. to ’B’ from ’B+’.
The negative outlook reflects the potential for a lower rating over the coming quarters if financial performance does not pick up while at the same time refinancing risks increase.
FRANKFURT (S&P Global Ratings) Nov. 24, 2020--S&P Global Ratings today lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Luxembourg-based 4finance Holding S.A. to ’B’ from ’B+’ The outlook is negative.

We also lowered the rating on the senior unsecured debt issued by 4finance S.A. to ’B’ from ’B+’. The recovery rating on this debt remains at ’4’(45%).

4finance’s stand-alone performance in the online business has taken a huge hit from the pandemic in 2020. The 2020 economic environment led to a sharp drop in new business amid lower demand, tightened underwriting standards, and interest regulation headwinds in some countries. We now expect an EBITDA reduction of more than 60% for full-year 2020, which will lead to a deterioration in our EBITDA-based leverage and interest-coverage metrics on a stand-alone basis, excluding Bulgarian subsidiary TBI Bank. Because we anticipate additional bond purchases over 2020 and 2021, we consider 50% of 4finance’s cash position in our net debt metrics. Still, we estimate S&P Global Ratings-adjusted net debt to EBITDA will likely peak in 2020 at roughly 10x. While we expect an improvement for 2021 to about 5x, downside risks to our forecast remain material in light of the economic uncertainty. We capture the strong EBITDA headwinds in our assessment of the bank’s financial risk profile as highly leveraged.

TBI Bank shows stronger resilience, but provides little direct benefit to 4finance’s debt-servicing capacity. We treat Bulgarian TBI Bank as an equity affiliate to 4finance Holding and deconsolidate its financials. We capture expected dividend payments and funding benefits in our analysis of 4finance Holding, but see limited benefit beyond this. The regulated status of TBI Bank prevents 4finance from extracting additional capital and liquidity, such that we assess TBI Bank as insulated from 4finance. Although TBI Bank’s credit loss provisions will be more than twice as high as in 2019, we expect it to end 2020 with net income of more than Bulgarian lev (BGN)30 million (€15 million) or a return on equity of 12%, after BGN45 million in 2019. We expect the dividend restrictions by the Bulgarian National Bank--on the back of uncertainty due to the pandemic--will be lifted by 2021, such that TBI Bank should be able to distribute a dividend of about €15 million to 4finance Holding S.A., with a stable dividend policy thereafter. In addition, 4finance has shown some progress in using TBI Bank’s balance sheet, by selling some near-prime loans to the bank. We expect the total volume sold could be €10 million-€30 million in 2021. Overall, these benefits are small relative to the upcoming bond redemptions.

The bond maturity extension in August 2020 bought time, but refinancing is needed by first-quarter 2022. 4finance’s business model depends on regular and timely access to funding markets and, absent sound bank lending relationships, it has limited alternatives for its bond maturities in February and May 2022. Should debt markets remain closed for 4finance, it might ultimately need to reduce or stop new loan disbursements and amortize its existing loan book. While this would be negative for the business profile, we consider that it would likely prevent an ordinary default scenario. With TBI Bank, 4finance owns an asset that could also play a role in refinancing its bonds, by (partially) divesting the bank.

The business risk profile remains weak amid continuing regulatory headwinds in some markets.

Voilà, je pense que TBI pourrait être utilisée comme gage pour obtenir un loan d’un fonds vautour. Ca serait l’arroseur arrosé.
TBI devrait valoir 1,5x la BV soit au moins €170m. Ca serait assez pour passer les 2 échéances.

Dernière modification par kiwijuice (11/12/2020 14h17)

Nouvelle année, nouvelles occases.
Que pensez-vous de XS0155141830
Perp de Barclays en USD.
PRospectus

6.86% jusqu’en 2032 puis reset 1.73+Libor 6 mois
Ca nous donne le temps de voir l’inflation revenir un peu.

Le gros moins : ils peuvent sucrer le coupon (mais dividende pusher) et ceux-ci ne sont pas cumulatifs.
Ce n’est pas une coco mais un Tier 1.

La question : Barclays peut-elle se risquer à ne pas payer de coupons si sa sitution le permet?

IRR difficile à calculer mais on dirait que le bond traite sous 100% donc current yield de 7% pendant 11 ans puis reset pour lequel je n’ai pas d’idée précise (je dirais que les taux resteront bas).