ADT Corporation : Security Systems & Services

Bonjour,

Les données et citations sont extraites des 10Q et 10K

Business Overview

"The ADT Corporation (hereinafter referred to as “we”, the “Company” or “ADT”) is a leading provider of electronic security, interactive home and business automation and related monitoring services in the United States and Canada. ADT has one of the most trusted and well-known brands in the security industry today. We currently serve more than six million residential and small business customers, making us the largest company of our kind in both the United States and Canada. We deliver an integrated customer experience by maintaining the industry’s largest sales, installation and service field force and most robust monitoring network, all backed by the support of nearly 16,000 employees. Our broad and pioneering set of products and services, including interactive home and business solutions and home health services, meet a range of customer needs for today’s active and
increasingly mobile lifestyles."

Recurring revenue: 92%

"Under our typical service agreement, the customer pays the initial installation fee and is then obligated to make monthly payments for the remainder of the initial contract term. The standard agreement term is three years (two years in California), with automatic renewals for successive 30-day periods unless cancelled by either party."

Catalyseurs:

"we have repurchased $800 million of our shares under the $2 billion authorization we announced last November.”

"On September 28, 2012 (the “Distribution Date”), The ADT Corporation (“ADT” or the “Company”)
became an independent, publicly traded company as a result of Tyco International Ltd.’s"

Low barriers to entering the business

The security systems market in the United States and Canada is highly competitive and fragmented, with a number of major firms and thousands of smaller regional and local companies. The high fragmentation of the industry is primarily the result of relatively low barriers to entering the business

Rentabilité et Prix
On observe une progression de l’EBIT ces dernières années, je choisis de travailler avec les résultats de 2012 et de ne pas valoriser la croissance. Même si les revenues sont récurrents et que l’utilisateur ne doit pas changer de système de sécurité tous les ans, le business est fortement concurentiel.
EBIT 2012 : 780M
D&A 2012 : 871M
MCX 2012 : 680M (1)
EBIT + D&A - MCX = 971M
(1) Subscribers assets systems (378) + Capital expenditures (61) + Dealer generated customer accounts required to maintain recuring revenue (241)
Je calcul un Tangible Invested Capital d’envirion: 2700M
--> Pre-Tax Return on Tangible Capital = 37.8%
Cours actuel : $39.85 - MarketCap :8720M - VE: 11000M
--> Earnings yield = 8.7%

Conclusion:

Je ne suis pas actionnaire. Si la marketCap tombe sous les 7B ($32), l’Earnings yield sera alors de 10.5%, ce qui me semble être un bon point d’entrée.

Dernière modification par JeanMarin (30/06/2013 20h08)

Mots-clés : security systems & services